Ethiopia and Eritrea are facing their gravest crisis since the 2018 peace agreement. Renewed fighting in Tigray, Ethiopian accusations of Eritrean incursions and the breakdown in diplomatic relations have raised the risk of an interstate war. Beneath the immediate tensions lie historical grievances, the uncertain future of the Pretoria Agreement, Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea and regional rivalries over the Nile and strategic ports. Egypt, Sudan, Somalia and several Gulf states are watching, and in some cases engaging, in a volatile arena where a local crisis could spill across borders. A formal peace under pressure from three crises As of 19 October 2026, Ethiopia and Eritrea have not declared open war, but their relationship has entered a dangerous phase of military and diplomatic confrontation. The escalation is driven by three mutually reinforcing dynamics: the resumption of fighting in Tigray, the clash between Addis Ababa’s maritime ambitions and...
