WEEKLY BRIEF: ENERGY RISKS ESCALATE ACROSS THE GULF AND UKRAINE

Energy infrastructure emerged as the connecting thread across three major theatres in week 42: the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia–Ukraine war. Attacks on oil facilities, shipping routes and power networks raised the global risk level from elevated to high, while the failure of a proposed energy ceasefire and Washington’s sanctions policy exposed widening differences between the United States and Europe. The week in context In the Gulf, the Houthis expanded their campaign from fuel sites and airports to Saudi energy interests. A strike hit Aramco’s headquarters, while a missile aimed at Yanbu (Saudi Arabia’s key Red Sea export route and an alternative to Hormuz) was intercepted. A successful attack there could connect the Red Sea and Gulf crises, disrupting exports and intensifying pressure on global oil markets. In Hormuz, shipping faced its most intense week of attacks so far. Two UAE-owned cargo ships were sunk, an Indian tanker was hit, and Iran’s R...