Europe Analysis Hub

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revived a question many Europeans thought belonged to the Cold War: how far does Moscow intend to go? The answer cannot be found in a border line or a list of countries Russia might annex. Russian ambition also operates through spheres of influence, dependent governments, occupied territories, and the power to veto its neighbors’ choices. The idea of expansion in phases helps visualize that objective, but it is neither a proven plan nor a map-based prediction. The threat, by contrast, is already tangible: it combines military force, political coercion, and hybrid operations to weaken Europe’s security order.   Geography as an Argument In Russian strategic thinking, geography is often treated as destiny. The vast European plain, with few natural barriers...